Independent election forecasts
Who would win if the election were held today?
Seatcast combines every published poll, corrects for each pollster’s known lean and plays the election through twenty thousand times. Every simulated result is turned into seats under the country’s actual electoral law. You get our forecast, the range where each party can realistically land, and the chance of every possible majority.
Covering Germany · Austria, Netherlands, New Zealand, United Kingdom in preparation
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Next election · in 194 days
Party vote (%)
Landtagswahl Saarland
- SPD26
- CDU20
- AfD25
- Grüne9.5
- FDP2.5
- Linke6.5
- BSW3
- Others7.5
National forecasts
Vote share if the election were held today
- GermanyBundestag · 6 October 2026AfD 28CDU/CSU 18.5Grüne 15.5SPD 14.5Linke 10.5Open
How to read a forecast
Party A
The forecast: our single most likely result
50 of 100 simulations land in the dark band
90 of 100 in the light band
Polls are never exact, so a forecast is more than one number. The bar shows where a party stands today. The bands below show how far off it could realistically be.
For parties close to a threshold we show the chance that they get in. For coalitions we show in how many of the twenty thousand simulations they reach a majority of seats.
Every assumption behind this is written down in plain language on the methodology page.
Upcoming elections
| 18 April 2027 | Landtagswahl Saarland | Forecast live |
|---|---|---|
| 18 April 2027 | Landtagswahl Schleswig-Holstein | Forecast live |
| 25 April 2027 | Landtagswahl Nordrhein-Westfalen | Forecast live |
| 30 May 2027 | Bürgerschaftswahl Bremen | Forecast live |
| 26 September 2027 | Landtagswahl Niedersachsen | Forecast live |
Track record
After every election we publish how close our final forecast was, next to the pollsters — including the ones where others did better.
Wahl zum Abgeordnetenhaus Berlin 20261.43 pts · 2 of 4